Q2 of 2025 showed an overall stabilisation of the secondary watch market, with the big brands doing most of the heavy lifting.
Morgan Stanley, in collaboration with WatchCharts, has just released their Q2 2025 watch market report.
The investment research company leans on WatchChart’s data, which reflects real-world secondary market prices in an analysis of the top luxury watch brands. As experts in second-hand luxury watches in London, the release of this report is like Christmas Day for us.
This quarter, we’re seeing stabilisation, with some clear names seeming to carry the market. Here are the highlights you need to know about.
What’s happening in the market overall?
The secondary watch market has had a rough ride since its post-COVID peak. According to a 2024 Deloitte study, prices peaked in March 2022 before falling by over 16% over two years. The market has since stabilised, and some estimate it could rival the primary market within 10 years.
But what, specifically, are we seeing from the Morgan Stanley 2025 Q2 report?
The most obvious thing to note is that prices have dropped for the thirteenth quarter in a row. However, at a 0.3% decline, this was the smallest quarterly drop since early 2022. This suggests a much-needed stabilisation is finally in play.
We can thank top-tier brands for that. Independent brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet look strongest, with brands from listed groups underperforming. In fact, 29 out of 35 Swiss brands tracked experienced negative performance during the quarter. 2025’s consumers are willing to pay more for second-hand models – but only when they’re from “Blue Chip” brands.
Watch industry expert, Oliver R. Muller, explains how the secondary market is even more polarised than the primary market, with only three brands capturing more than 50% of the total transactional value – Rolex, Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe.
To put it simply: The strong brands are only getting stronger.
What’s driving the shift towards second-hand watches?
As customers shift closer to the pre-owned market, it’s worth asking why.
One explanation is that this is a response to price rises in the primary market, especially in places like the US, which saw a 10% increase in tariffs from May this year.
CPO (certified pre-owned) remains another growth driver for the secondary market. Customers are willing to pay substantially more compared to non-certified watches. The assurance of authenticity and a manufacturer-backed warranty are clearly worth the extra investment.
Brand-specific insights that caught our eye
With market stabilisation driven almost entirely by the big names, let’s take a closer look at the brands doing the heavy lifting in 2025.
Rolex
Even after a long stretch of overall market volatility, Rolex remains the backbone of the secondary market.
In Q2, prices for Rolex models stayed almost flat, dipping by just 0.2% – a super subtle drop compared to many others who weren’t as lucky (or didn’t have the brand strength to back them up). This small drop follows a 0.4% rise in Q1, making Rolex one of the most stable performers for the first half of the year.
Rolex’s CPO programme is playing a major role in its performance. CPO-listed models now command around 30% more than their non-certified equivalents, and estimated global sales in Q1 hit $120 million.
Top-performing collections include the GMT-Master II and the Daytona. Retail price increases in 2025 – which admittedly were only around 1%, mostly on steel models (via Luxury Bazaar) – haven’t had much impact on demand, which stays strong.
In rocky times, Rolex continues to be a “safe haven” brand for collectors and investors.
Patek Philippe
Patek Philippe delivered one of the strongest performances of the quarter, with secondary prices rising 1% in Q2. That’s a marked rebound from Q1, where prices dipped just slightly. Overall, a stable 2025 for the brand – proof of its enduring appeal.
As expected, sports models are driving this performance. The Aquanaut rose by 2% quarter-on-quarter, and the Nautilus continues to command big premiums in the second-hand space, with some models trading for 50%+ above retail.
Cartier
Although the wider group (Richemont) has mostly been dragged down, Cartier continues its quiet rise through the secondary market ranks. Prices increased 0.9% in Q2 – an impressive feat considering the overall performance of group-owned watch brands.
The success is largely thanks to Cartier’s most iconic designs. As a more accessible point into luxury, the Tank, Santos, and Panthère collections are booming in popularity, especially among younger collectors and first-time buyers.
Omega
Omega posted a 0.1% decline this quarter, which is a sign of steady performance in a challenging market.
The brand continues to benefit from strong demand for its signature models, especially the Speedmaster and Seamaster. These pieces offer buyers access to real innovation and precision, often at a more approachable price than the Big Three.
Audemars Piguet
AP’s story is a bit more mixed. While it performed well in Q1 (maintaining pace with its rival, Patek), the brand saw a 1.3% decline in Q2 average resale prices. That brought its YoY dip down to 4.9%.
Still, Audemars Piguet has shown stronger long-term appreciation than other independent Swiss brands since 2021, thanks in part to the staying power of the Royal Oak. However, even the stability of the Royal Oak couldn’t completely offset price declines for the likes of the Offshore and Code 11.59.
Why the secondary market is one to watch
Secondary market prices do more than just tell us what watches are selling for. They reveal which brands are truly in demand. When buyers are willing to pay above retail for certain models, this shows brand prestige as well as real-world equity and long-term potential.
Watch enthusiasts and investors alike pay close attention to reports like this. A brand’s performance on the secondary market is often the best indicator of how well it will hold its value over time.
What’s clear from the latest Morgan Stanley report is that consumers are doubling down on Blue Chip names, like Rolex and Patek Philippe, with Omega and Cartier getting their share of attention. We’re seeing more customers shift their attention to pre-owned and CPO models, so much so that some experts believe it could soon rival the primary retail market.
Refine your collection with Trilogy
At Trilogy, we’re a little bit obsessed with the movements of the watch market.
If you’re searching for a new or used luxury watch to add to your collection, we’re the people to ask. Frankie and the team can help you find the best one for your style and budget, whether you’re an investor or you just want a new Swiss timepiece for your wrist.
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